The international donors conference held in Cairo on Oct. 12 sent out an unmistakable message: Rebuilding the Gaza Strip after last summer’s 50-day war between Israel and radical Palestinian factions is a necessity, but the Aug. 26 ceasefire that ended the fighting may not endure unless Israel and the Palestinians reach a broader political agreement to defuse the Arab-Israeli conflict once and for all.
In other words, a return to the status quo ante in Gaza is not really a viable option, either for Israel or the Palestinians.
Three wars have broken out in Gaza since 2008, and at the end of each round of hostilities, donor nations have ritualistically rushed in to pick through the ruins and rebuild Gaza, only to watch their well-intentioned efforts go up in smoke as yet more battles erupt.
This tiresome scenario finally appears to have run its course.
As U.S. Secretary of State John Kerry said in a tone of frustration: “This is the third time in less than six years that together with the people of Gaza, we have been forced to confront a reconstruction effort. This is the third time in less than six years that we’ve seen war break out and Gaza left in rubble.”
Despite Kerry’s weary acknowledgement that Gaza may explode into violence yet again in the near future, about 50 nations turned up in Cairo yesterday and promised to contribute $5.4 billion over three years toward its reconstruction.
For better or worse, it’ll be a gargantuan task that may take as long as a decade to complete.
During the war, an estimated 18,000 homes were destroyed or badly damaged, displacing one-third of Gaza’s 1.8 million inhabitants, many of whom are the descendants of refugees from the 1948 war. In addition to the dwellings rendered uninhabitable by the latest war, the reconstruction effort will have to deal with the problem of rebuilding homes bombed during the wars of 2008-2009 and 2012.
Qatar, an oil-rich Arab state that assumed a lead role in Gaza’s reconstruction following the last two wars, has agreed to donate $1 billion, making it the single largest donor. The United States and the European Union pledged $212 and $568 million respectively.
Canada, one of Israel’s best friends, offered no new aid to the Palestinians, saying that fresh assistance is contingent on iron-clad assurances that funds will not be allocated to Hamas, the Islamic fundamentalist group that ignited the latest war by bombarding Israeli communities along the border. After the previous wars, Hamas — which has ruled Gaza since 2007 — siphoned off donor dollars to expand its military infrastructure, which consists, in part, of attack tunnels and reinforced bunkers.
This time around, donor funds are being channelled directly to the Palestinian Authority, which signed a reconciliation pact with its rival, Hamas, last April in a bid to end their seven-year schism. The Palestinian national movement split into two warring camps after Hamas seized Gaza from the Palestinian Authority in a bloody coup in June 2007. The reconciliation accord was followed by the formation of a Palestinian unity government of technocrats backed by Hamas, which rejects Israel’s existence and a two-state solution.
These agreements were the object of Israeli disapproval and scorn.
Nonetheless, Israel, the Palestinian Authority and the United Nations signed a deal last month under which the Palestinian Authority, led by President Mahmoud Abbas, will take “a lead role in the reconstruction effort,” while United Nations monitors will ensure that building materials like cement are not “diverted from their entirely civilian purpose.”
This arrangement, brokered by United Nations representative Robert Serry, will give the Palestinian Authority — which recognizes Israel — a foothold in Gaza for the first time since 2007. At the Cairo conference, Kerry alluded to the role the Palestinian Authority can play in Gaza from now on. “We can and should help (it) expand its control of Gaza,” he said.
Egyptian President Abdel Fattah el-Sisi, the host of the conference whose government negotiated last August’s truce, concurs with Kerry. Reconstruction in Gaza, he declared, hinges on a “permanent calm” between Israel and Hamas and requires the exercise of “full authority” by the Palestinian Authority.
For the moment, though, Hamas is still effectively in charge of Gaza.
As Israel’s top general, Benny Gantz, said on Oct. 2, a long-term ceasefire is also dependent on distributing “carrots,” or improving everyday conditions for the Palestinians of Gaza. “The Gaza Strip must be permitted to import goods,” he explained. “These people need to live.”
Beyond that, as UN Secretary-General Ban ki-Moon said at yesterday’s conference, Israel and the Palestinian Authority must come together “to chart a course toward a just and final peace” and must not be bound by the status quo ante.
Sisi was just as emphatic. “The status quo must not continue, cannot be returned to,” he said. “I tell the Israelis, both citizens and government: The time has come to end the conflict without further delay, to grant rights and establish justice so that prosperity and security can prevail.”
Catherine Ashton, the European Union’s chief foreign policy official, underlined this point as well: “The solution for Gaza cannot be found in Gaza alone. Only a credible resumption of of peace negotiations can allow for a durable solution to the current crisis.”
She added, “This must be the last time in which the international community is called upon to rebuild Gaza. There cannot be a return to the status quo, which has proved unsustainable.”
There are no tangible signs on the horizon that Israel/Palestinian Authority peace talks, which collapsed last April, will resume. For now, the emphasis is squarely on Gaza and the indirect ceasefire negotiations that will take place between Israel and Hamas starting at the end of October.
Hamas and Islamic Jihad, a more radical organization, have threatened to renew the war if their main demands — the lifting of the seven-year blockade of Gaza and the construction of a sea port and an airport in Gaza — fall by the wayside. The vast majority of Palestinians have rallied behind these demands, but observers do not think there will be a resumption of fighting if they’re rebuffed. Israel has already rejected them out of hand, but will try to ease the siege by opening border crossing points.
Israeli demands for demilitarizing Gaza and disarming Gaza are also illusory. Israel had hoped that the rehabilitation and demilitarization of Gaza could be pursued in parallel and not sequentially. But this will not be possible, despite American and European Union support.
More than two weeks ago, Egyptian Foreign Minister Sameh Shukri said that these issues should be addressed at negotiations on a final peace accord between Israel and the Palestinians, not in ceasefire talks.
Ismail Haniyeh, the Hamas leader, has also belittled Israel’s demands. As he said on Sept. 13, “The weapons of the resistance and its capabilities are a red line that cannot be crossed, and which no one can touch.”
Israel, however, intends to play a key role in Gaza’s reconstruction. “Gaza cannot be rebuilt without the cooperation and participation of Israel,” Israeli Foreign Minister Avigdor Liberman said.
By any yardstick, the rebuilding of Gaza will serve Israel’s interest, Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s former national security advisor, Yaakov Amidror, has written: “Alongside Israel’s power of deterrence, the Gazans own property that they will be afraid to lose again.”
This is an important consideration and Hamas will surely factor it into its calculations. By the same token, as Liberman has admitted, Hamas was politically strengthened by the war last summer. Most Palestinians applauded its steadfastness and resilience in the face of superior Israeli fire power, while seemingly overlooking its responsibility for the destruction in Gaza.
Judging by the mood of the conference in Cairo, donor countries have virtually reached their limit and patience in rebuilding Gaza ad infinitum. Hamas and Islamic Jihad will have to bear that imperative in mind before they fire rockets indiscriminately at Israel again.
There will be pressure on Israel, too. More than ever, Israel will be expected to engage the Palestinian Authority in serious, good faith negotiations on a two-state solution, an outcome several of Netanyahu’s strongest cabinet ministers oppose. But as Kerry has suggested, a solution in Gaza is inextricably connected to the resolution of the broader Arab-Israeli dispute, which continues to simmer ominously.