The United States has escalated its military campaign against the Houthi rebels in Yemen, but they remain defiant, prompting speculation whether they can be defeated any time soon.
Last week, President Donald Trump ordered a massive wave of air strikes on their command centers, weapons depots and training sites. The bombings, the heaviest ever targeting the Houthis, killed 53 people and wounded 98.
The raids, far more effective than the pinprick ones periodically ordered by Trump’s predecessor, Joe Biden, were the opening salvos in a bid by the United States to restore freedom of navigation in the Red Sea, a strategically vital maritime route through which 12 percent of global trade passes.
Undeterred by the onslaught, the Houthis have continued to fire on U.S. naval ships and launch missiles and drones at Israel.
Controlling much of northern Yemen as well as its capital, Sanaa, the Houthis have been attacking commercial shipping and Israel since the autumn of 2023 in an effort to pressure the Israeli government to end the Israel-Hamas war in the Gaza Strip.
At first, they targeted Israeli-owned vessels and fired missiles and drones at the southern Israeli port of Eilat. Subsequently, they struck all manner of ships plying the Red Sea and the Gulf of Aden and fired missiles and drones at cities in central Israel.
According to the U.S. Department of Defence, the Houthis have targeted 145 international ships and 170 U.S. naval craft since November 2023.
These unprovoked attacks led maritime companies to avoid the Red Sea and Egypt’s Suez Canal and to reroute ships around the Cape of Good hope, the southern tip of Africa, to reach European ports.
This means that the voyage to Europe has been extended by ten days to 6,400 nautical kilometers. This far longer route is considerably more expensive and has driven up the price of goods at a moment when inflation is a pressing problem around the world.
When Trump announced the U.S. strikes on March 19, he referred to this festering issue, saying the Houthis have harmed global trade. “These relentless assaults have cost the U.S. and World Economy many BILLIONS of Dollars while, at the same time, putting innocent lives at risk,” he wrote on his Truth Social site.
Accusing the Houthis of waging “an unrelenting campaign of piracy, violence and terrorism” against American and other vessels in the region, Trump boasted that U.S. aircraft had inflicted “tremendous damage” in Yemen.
He predicted that the Houthis — a member of Iran’s anti-Israel and anti-American Axis of Resistance whose provocative slogan is “Death to America, death to Israel, and a curse upon the Jews” — would be “completely annihilated.”
Trump also warned Iran that U.S. attacks in Yemen were intended as a warning to the Iranian regime to stop helping the Houthis.
Hewing to this theme, Defence Secretary Pete Hegseth placed Iran “on notice” and ordered the deployment of two aircraft carriers in the area.
U.S. attempts to weaken the Houthis may require more than airstrikes. The New York Times reports that shipping executives do not plan to allow vessels back to the Red Sea until the Houthis are decisively defeated, or until Israel and the Palestinians reach a broad peace agreement. Since no such scenario looms on the horizon, U.S. strikes on the Houthis are expected to continue unabated, albeit on a less intensive level.
As for Israel, the Houthis have resumed attacks against the Jewish state after a relatively brief lull.
On January 19, the day a ceasefire went into effect in Gaza, the Houthis suspended missile and drone attacks against Israel. But on March 6, a few days after Israel blocked humanitarian aid convoys from entering Gaza, Houthi commander Abdel-Malik al-Houthi issued a stark message. He warned the Israeli government that the Houthis would resume attacking Israel if it failed to reopen the border crossings and allow aid into Gaza.
The Israeli government ignored the warning, and on March 11, Houthi spokesman Yahya Saree announced the resumption of attacks against Israel on land and sea. Since then, the Houthis have launched six ballistic missiles at Israel, all of which have been downed outside Israeli air space.
Since last July, the Israeli Air Force has carried out several retaliatory air strikes in Yemen. According to reports in the Israeli media, the Trump administration has asked Israel not to respond to the latest Houthi launches, saying the U.S. will deal with the Houthis.
Despite his bluster, Trump has yet to act against Iran, which has supplied the Houthis with arms, intelligence data and financial support.
With Iran’s backing, they rebelled against Yemen’s central government in 2014, seizing the northwestern regions and battling Saudi Arabia in a war of attrition. The internationally-recognized Yemeni government, based in Aden and backed by the Saudis and the United States, controls the southern and eastern parts of Yemen.
Although the Houthi movement is definitely a proxy of Iran and has acted on its behalf, the Houthis claim they have their own interests and agenda.
This was the story line promoted by Iran’s supreme leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, in a speech on March 21 in reaction to Trump’s threat to hold Iran accountable for Houthi aggression.
“The Yemeni nation has its own motivation, and resistance groups in the region have their own motivations,” he said in a clear attempt to distance Iran from the Houthis and thereby fend off U.S. retribution. “Iran doesn’t need proxies.”
The Institute for the Study of War, a U.S. think tank, believes the Iranian regime is seriously concerned by the possibility of a U.S. attack.
“Senior Iranian officials are trying to obfuscate Iran’s role in leading the Axis of Resistance by denying that Iran exerts direct control over groups like the Houthis, likely to avoid escalation with the United States.
“Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps Commander Major General Hossein Salami separately claimed on March 16 that the ‘Yemenis’ are an ‘independent and free nation’ and that Houthis make their own strategic and operational decisions that Iran does not direct.
“These statements ignore that the Houthis have repeatedly highlighted their coordination with the Axis of Resistance prior to conducting operations.”
It would appear that Iran’s dual-track policy is to reduce the risk of a direct confrontation with the United States, while maintaining its leadership of the Axis of Resistance and its relationship with the Houthis.
This is a balancing act that may be beyond Iran’s capacity or willingness to maintain.