With Syrian rebels having captured the cities of Aleppo and Hama in the last ten days, Syria’s civil war is burning brightly again after a fairly lengthy period of dormancy.
The civil war erupted in 2011 after the totalitarian Syrian regime violently crushed peaceful nation-wide protests demanding long overdue democratic reforms. The bitter conflict, having defied a diplomatic solution, has led to the deaths of about 300,000 Syrians and the internal and external displacement of approximately five million Syrian citizens.
If the insurgents, spearheaded by jihadists, manage to push further south and seize Homs and Damascus, the days of Syrian President Bashar al-Assad’s secular Baathist regime could be numbered.
If he and his Baathist regime are ousted, the strategic implications for all of Syria’s neighbors, particularly Israel, would be enormous.
Assad has ruled Syria — the so-called beating heart of Arab nationalism — with an iron fist since 2000. He succeeded his late father, Hafez al-Assad, who assumed the presidency following a coup d’état in 1970.
Syria, one of Israel’s arch enemies, decisively defeated rebels in Aleppo in 2016 with the assistance of key allies Russia, Iran and Hezbollah. From that point onward, Syrian government forces recaptured a lot of the territory they lost after 2011.
But now, in the aftermath of a lightning offensive initiated by Hayat Tahrir al-Sham on November 27, the rebels have conquered Aleppo, a major commercial hub and Syria’s second largest city.
With the spectre of defeat possibly facing Syria, Russia and Iran have redoubled their efforts to keep Assad afloat, while Iranian-backed Iraqi militias — Kataib Hezbollah, the Badr organization and Harakat Hezbollah al-Nujaba — plan to deploy to northern Syria to assist the Russian and Iranians.
The rebels, in an ironic turn of events, have stormed into Hama, which, until the early 1980s, was a stronghold of Islamic fundamentalists. Hafez al-Assad destroyed this outpost of resistance in 1982 when he ruthlessly crushed a Muslim Brotherhood rebellion, killing as many as 30,000 of its residents and demolishing much of the city.
Until the rebels’ latest offensive, the Syrian government controlled upwards of 70 percent of Syria’s land mass. Idlib province, in the northwest, is still controlled by Syrian jihadists loyal to or affiliated with Al Qaeda. Their hope is to depose Assad and form a theocratic state.
Apart from Idlib, the remainder of Syrian-occupied territory is held by various groups.
Turkey, following three separate invasions from 2016 onward, has created a buffer zone along its southern border to ensure that it does not fall into the hands of Kurdish groups, all of which are struggling to attain national independence within the framework of a sovereign state.
The Kurds and the United States control a sliver of territory in the northeast, where the remnants of the Islamic State organization are still active. Islamic State, having established a short-lived caliphate in Iraq and Syria in 2013, was defeated in 2017 but still holds patches of land in the Syrian desert.
The civil war was largely in remission until the most recent events, but signs of trouble were apparent.
In August of 2023, Syria slashed fuel subsidies, which more than doubled the price of gasoline and triggered anti-government demonstrations throughout the country.
And in October of that year, 80 to 100 army cadets were killed in Homs province when an armed drone crashed into their graduation ceremony. The Syrian Foreign Ministry blamed the Syrian Democratic Forces, a Kurdish militia backed by the United States.
Aside from these incidents, the civil war sputtered to a virtual halt in 2020. But late last month, in a startling development that took Syria by surprise, several rebel groups launched a stunning offensive under the broad leadership of Hayat Tahrir al-Sham, a former Al Qaeda affiliate, and of the Syrian National Army, which is supported by Turkey.
The rebel offensive is regarded as a gross violation of a 2019 agreement brokered by Turkey, Iran and Russia to end the civil war.
The rebels claim it is designed to achieve two overlapping objectives: to prevent Syrian and Russian forces from launching fresh attacks and to reimpose the 2019 ceasefire.
It appears that the rebels planned only a limited operation, but having realized that the Syrian army was weak and ineffective, they expanded their campaign. Their calculations were correct. This was an ideal moment to strike Assad.
Russia, Syria’s chief ally and arms provider, intervened in the civil war in 2015, turning the tide in Syria’s favor. But now Russia is preoccupied with a war in Ukraine, which has claimed the lives of tens of thousands of its troops.
With Russian President Vladimir Putin focused on defeating Ukraine, which is backed by Western powers, it is debatable whether Russia has the capability of fully defending Syria, its main ally in the Arab world. Certainly, Russia will do its best to prop up Assad. As Putin’s spokesman, Dmitry Peskov, said, “We are in favor of the Syrian authorities bringing order to the area and restoring constitutional order as soon as possible.”
Iran, an ally of Syria since the 1980s, worked collaboratively with Russia to repel the rebels. The Iranians sent advisors, weapons, and Shi’a militias from Pakistan and Afghanistan to shore up Assad. Iran was also interested in establishing a platform on the Syrian side of the Golan Heights from which to harass and attack Israel.
Today, Iran’s room for maneuver is circumscribed. In the past year, Iran has been distracted by its armed confrontation with Israel. Since last April, Iran and Israel have clashed directly no less than four times.
Iran, too, has been closely monitoring the wars in the Gaza Strip and Lebanon that have pitted Israel against its proxies, Hamas and Hezbollah.
Consequently, Iran is doubtless overstretched and must use its military resources judiciously.
Nonetheless, Iran is firmly behind Syria, as Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi said on December 1 during a visit to Damascus. To no one’s surprise, he described the current rebel offensive as a plot by the United States and Israel to destabilize Syria.
It is worth noting that Iran backs Syria wholeheartedly despite Assad’s refusal to join the war against Israel following Israel’s invasion of Gaza and its border war with Hezbollah, which recently ended with a shaky truce. Iran views Syria as a major component of its efforts to maintain regional influence and rebuild Hezbollah’s military capabilities with Syrian assistance.
Hezbollah, at Iran’s request, fought alongside Syrian troops during the greater part of the civil war, deploying thousands of fighters in Assad’s defence. In recent months, however, numerous Hezbollah fighters left Syria to bolster Hezbollah’s ranks in Lebanon.
Having been badly mauled by Israel following Israel’s invasion of southern Lebanon on October 1, Hezbollah is currently focused on rebuilding itself militarily. As a result, Hezbollah will not likely commit a substantial number of fighters to Syria. Indeed, Hezbollah may not even be capable of helping Syria in any significant manner.
Hayat Tahrir al-Sham’s leader, Abu Mohammed al-Jolani, presumably factored all these elements into account when he ordered the current offensive, which may have exceeded his grandest expectations.
One reason for his success is the apparently mediocre quality of the Syrian army. Composed primarily of poorly trained and low paid recruits, it performed poorly in defending Aleppo, one of the great historic cities of the Middle East. Even at the height of the civil war a decade ago, the rebels failed to capture Aleppo.
Turkey, which broke ranks with Syria over Assad’s unwillingness to negotiate with the rebels, reportedly supported their current offensive. Since Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan’s disagreement with Assad, the rebels have enjoyed military, economic, and logistical backing from Ankara. Turkey, in particular, supports the Syrian National Army, one of the rebel forces besieging Assad.
The Turkish government is driven by two considerations. First, Turkey wants to curb the strength of the Syrian branch of the Kurdish national movement and limit Kurdish autonomy in northeastern Syria. Second, Turkey is trying to create the conditions for the repatriation of a significant proportion of the 3.5 million Syrian refugees who fled to Turkey during the civil war.
Turkish Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan has blamed Syria for the recent outbreak of fighting, ascribing it to Assad’s refusal to conduct a dialogue with his adversaries. “Recent developments show once again that Damascus must reconcile with its own people and the legitimate opposition,” he said. “Turkey is ready to make all the necessary contribution toward this.”
Iran, Turkey’s rival, has accused Turkey of betraying its Islamic roots and siding with the United States and Israel. Ali Akbar Velayati, an advisor to Iranian supreme leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, claims that “anti-Islamic” elements in the Turkish government are “committing acts that desecrate Islam.”
Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps has warned that Iranian trust in Turkey could decrease if the Syrian opposition weakens the Axis of Resistance, the anti-Israel alliance consisting of Syria, Hamas, Hezbollah, the Houthis of Yemen, and the Islamic Movement in Iraq.
The United States has supported Syrian nationalist rebels from the very outset of the civil war. But now Washington has called for deescalation. In the meantime, the U.S. maintains a garrison of some 900 troops in northeastern Syria, working in tandem with the Syrian Democratic Forces, a Kurdish militia, to keep Islamic State at bay.
Turkey views the Syrian Democratic Forces as a terrorist group due to its links to the Kurdistan Workers’ Party, a militant group that has launched terrorist attacks inside Turkey in the name of Kurdish nationalism. Its foot soldiers have been accused of widespread abuses ranging from summary executions and beatings to kidnappings and looting in areas under Turkey’s control.
Israel, Syria’s neighbor, has hewed to a policy of neutrality since the start the civil war. The Israelis have been carefully watching the most recent developments in Syria unfold.
In all probability, the Israeli government would prefer Assad to prevail, despite the fact that Israel has fought several wars with the Syrians since its birth in 1948. In the past eleven years, Israel has also struck Syrian military facilities, pounded Iranian bases and bombed Hezbollah arms convoys heading toward Lebanon.
Israel’s reasoning makes sense. In spite of its hostility to Israel, Syria is the lesser of two evils compared to the jihadists seeking Assad’s overthrow.
Lest it be forgotten, Syria entered into negotiations with Israel in the 1990s with the goal of signing a formal peace treaty with its Jewish foe. By contrast, Hayat Tahrir al-Sham, designed as a terrorist organization by the United States and other Western nations, is ideologically opposed to Israel’s very existence.
Several days after Hamas’ October 7, 2023 invasion of southern Israel, Hayat Tahrir al-Sham’s leader, al-Julani, expressed satisfaction, saying that the “people of Gaza humiliated the pride of the occupying Zionists” and “brought joy to the hearts of the oppressed.”
Its chief cleric, Abdul Rahim Atoun, has voiced antisemitic statements. After Israeli soldiers killed Hamas leader Yahya Sinwar in Gaza in October, he wrote on his Telegram channel, “We ask the Lord to disgrace the Jews, oppress them and curse them and those who supported them.”
Israel, therefore, is rooting for neither Syria nor its Islamic foes. Israel’s overriding interest is that the battles to come will weaken both sides seriously and place Israel in an advantageous position tactically and strategically.