As he toured Israel’s northern border on November 3, Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said that Israel would restore security there “with or without” an agreement with Lebanon.
What he meant is clear.
Israel is determined to facilitate the return of some 60,000 displaced Israelis through either diplomacy or military means. Ordered to evacuate their homes near the border about a year ago, they have lived in limbo ever since.
They were evacuated due to fears that Hezbollah, Iran’s chief surrogate, might invade northern Israel and perpetrate a massacre of the kind Hamas carried out in southern Israel on October 7, 2023.
Hamas’ rampage resulted in the deaths of roughly 1,200 people and the abduction of 251 Israelis and foreigners. It triggered Israel’s invasion of the Gaza Strip last October and Hezbollah’s decision to bombard Israel in a show of solidarity with Hamas, another Iranian proxy.
After nearly a year of daily Hezbollah bombardments, Israel invaded southern Lebanon on September 30 in a “limited, localized and targeted” attack. Its purpose is two-fold: to obliterate Hezbollah’s military infrastructure close to the border and to push its operatives north of the Litani River in accordance with United Nations Security Council Resolution 1701, which was passed following the Israel-Hezbollah war in 2006.
Israeli troops have since swept into villages, battled Hezbollah fighters, blown up a maze of tunnels leading toward Israel, and captured tons of weapons and munitions. At the same time, Israeli aircraft have bombed Hezbollah strongholds, focusing on the southern suburbs of Beirut, Tyre, Sidon and Baalbek.
Israeli jets also have bombed Hezbollah’s weapons storage facilities and command centers, and a branch of its intelligence headquarters, in Syria.
Israel claims to have killed 2,000 Hezbollah foot soldiers, eliminated many of its commanders and destroyed 70 percent of its drones and 80 percent of its rockets. Nonetheless, Hezbollah has proven to be a resilient foe, inasmuch as Israel has failed to suppress its ability to launch rockets and drones into Israeli territory.
In the past year, Hezbollah has fired approximately 12,000 rockets, drones and anti-tank missiles toward Israel. The majority have been intercepted or have landed in empty areas.
During Netanyahu’s tour several days ago, Hezbollah fired more than 100 rockets and drones at Israel. And on November 6, Hezbollah launched 150 rockets. One of these killed a teenager in Kibbutz Kfar Masaryk, near Acre. Another rocket landed near Ben Gurion Airport.
As a result of the hostilities, 40 Israeli civilians and 62 soldiers have been killed in cross-border skirmishes since last October and during Israel’s current ground operation.
Eran Ortal, in a paper written for the Begin-Sadat Center for Strategic Studies, contends that Israeli forces are “dangerously vulnerable to enemy capabilities and (are) not effective enough to cleanse the south without sinking into an eternal guerrilla war.”
In Lebanon, meanwhile, 3,100 civilians have been killed. These losses have shaken Lebanon’s caretaker prime minister, Najib Mikati, who has called for a “full and immediate ceasefire,” the stationing of Lebanese army troops south of the Litani River, and the implementation of Resolution 1701.
From 2006 onward, Hezbollah totally disregarded it, while the weak Lebanese government and the ineffectual army were powerless to enforce it.
In Mikati’s view, Hezbollah accepts the resolution today. Yet its leader, Naim Qassem, has still not officially endorsed it.
Two days ago, in a truculent speech, Qassem said that the war will end on “the battlefield” rather than through diplomacy. “We will bring Israel to a situation where it will ask for a ceasefire because it will no longer be able to handle (the war) any more,” he boasted, implying that a war of attrition will wear down Israeli troops.
Qassem is well aware that, under the terms of the resolution, the only armed forces permitted in southern Lebanon are the Lebanese army and the United Nations Interim Force in Lebanon (UNIFIL), which was created after Israel’s first invasion of Lebanon in 1978.
If the resolution is fully honored. Hezbollah would have to withdraw to a line north of the Litani and disarm. These scenarios are highly unlikely and could yet spark a civil war in Lebanon, a nation torn by endemic political paralysis and riven by deep economic woes.
In addition, Qassem has yet to state definitively whether he would agree to a ceasefire in Lebanon without a concurrent truce in Gaza, a demand that his late predecessor, Hassan Nasrallah, insisted on.
Sensing that the Lebanese government was perhaps seriously interested in implementing Resolution 1701, the United States dispatched two top-ranking diplomats to the region recently to ascertain whether a ceasefire is feasible.
Amos Hochstein, President Joe Biden’s special envoy, and Brett McGurk, the Biden administration’s coordinator for Middle East affairs, conferred with Lebanese and Israeli officials to gauge the prospects.
For reasons that have yet to be explained, Mikati was buoyed by their visit, saying that a ceasefire could be announced within days.
Hochstein, however, does not share his optimism.
“I believe that a ceasefire is within reach, and in the interest of both countries and people,” he said the other day. “But if we simply strive for a cessation of hostilities, we will be back in conflict sooner or later.”
Hochstein did not spell out exactly what he meant, but said that a solution would have to be “entirely different” and “require international community support.”
U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken was slightly more sanguine, saying that Israel and Lebanon were moving toward understandings on what would be needed to implement Resolution 1701. “I can tell you now that, based on my recent trip to the region, we have made good progress on those understandings,” he noted.
A ceasefire that endures could have significant consequences. It could strengthen the central government in Beirut and, most importantly, reduce the influence of Hezbollah and its ally, Iran, a destabilizing influence in the Middle East
While such an outcome would be desirable, a ceasefire is still far off in the distance.
Israel is reportedly demanding the full enforcement of Resolution 1701 and international oversight to prevent Hezbollah’s rearmament.
Proceeding from the assumption that southern Lebanon can never again be used as a military platform against Israel, the Israel government is demanding the right to conduct ground and air operations in Lebanon should the resolution be violated.
Neither Hezbollah nor the Lebanese government would be inclined to accept these conditions, but for Israel they are of paramount importance.
Most recently, Netanyahu laid down Israel’s grand strategy. He said that Israel is bent on enforcing security around its northern border, thwarting attacks, and acting against efforts by its enemies to rearm.
Last month, the commander of Israeli forces, General Herzi Halevi, spelled out the specifics.
First, Israel will press on with its offensive in Lebanon until Hezbollah is pushed beyond the Litani and displaced Israelis can return to their homes. Second, Israel will reserve the right to return to Lebanon, following a ceasefire, should Hezbollah attempt to regroup in the south.
On November 6, Halevi said that Israel must be prepared to expand its ground offensive. “Alongside the diplomatic attempt to reach agreements in Lebanon, we need to continue formulating the plans for the continuation of the fighting in Lebanon, including expanding and deepening the (ground) maneuver, and we will activate these plans as needed.”
In the meantime, Israel is continuing to shatter Hezbollah’s command structure and find weapons caches.
Last week, Israeli aircraft killed two commanders, Abu Ali Rida and Riyad Reda Ghazzawi, both of whom planned and carried out rocket and anti-tank missile attacks.
Prior to this, Israel assassinated, among others, Ahmad Mahmoud Wahabi, a key member of the Radwan Force, which is tasked with invading the Galilee; Ibrahim Aqil, who was in charge of the operations command; Mohammed Susur, who directed the drones unit, and Ibrahim Qubaisi, who commanded the missile force.
Israel has destroyed thousands of rocket and missile launch sites and found vast quantities of weapons. Since its incursion into Lebanon, Israel has seized about 10,000 advanced anti-tank missiles. “The capture of such a large number of anti-tank munitions suggests that Hezbollah is unable to defend key stockpiles and infrastructure sites in southern Lebanon,” says the Institute for the Study of War.
Be that as it may, Hezbollah is resisting Israel’s offensive in the hope that it can preserve its military positions near Israel’s northern border.
Israel most certainly will try to block Hezbollah’s tactic, which means that a ceasefire in Lebanon may well be out of reach.
President-elect Donald Trump, who defeated Kamala Harris in the November 5 presidential election, apparently thinks that a truce is possible. Last week, he sent an open letter to Lebanese Americans vowing that, if elected, he would “stop the suffering and destruction in Lebanon” and secure “a lasting peace” in the Middle East.
Easier said than done.