The fate of the Gaza Strip hangs in the balance.
Gaza, invaded by the Israeli army after Hamas’ massacre in southern Israel on October 7, 2023, has descended into a twilight zone since January 19, the day the ceasefire negotiated by the United States, Qatar and Egypt kicked in.
While the Israel-Hamas war has stopped, having enabled the incremental release of Israeli hostages and Palestinian prisoners, the truce is tenuous and Gaza’s future remains uncertain.
Hamas has been militarily degraded after more than a year of fighting, yet Hamas has survived the crushing onslaught and is still in charge of Gaza’s affairs.
The reason is clear.
The Israeli government of Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has unwisely left a power vacuum in Gaza due to his refusal to present a “day-after” plan for its governance and reconstruction.
In the absence of such a tangible blueprint, the United States and Egypt have rushed in with diametrically opposed plans.
Last month, in a joint press conference with Netanyahu, U.S. President Donald Trump stunned the region with an entirely novel, deliberately vague and highly provocative pie-in the-sky proposal to develop Gaza into the “Riviera of the Middle East.”
Trump said that the U.S. would “take over” and “own” Gaza and be responsible for disposing of unexploded munitions and rebuilding it into a first-class tourist destination.
The redevelopment of Gaza, a project that could take ten to 15 years to complete according to U.S. estimates, would be impractical unless its residents were moved somewhere else, he said.
He did not provide nitty gritty details, but added that Gaza’s 2.2 million Palestinian inhabitants should be moved to neighboring Jordan and Egypt, where they would be “happy, safe and free.”
U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio and Trump’s press secretary, Karoline Leavitt, insisted that the displacement of Gazans would be only temporary. Trump, in a social media posting, contradicted them, decreeing that their transfer would be permanent.
Shortly afterward, he shared an AI-generated video of “Trump Gaza,” contending that his scheme was workable, yet claiming that it was nothing more than a recommendation.
To no one’s surprise, the Egyptian and Jordanian governments immediately dismissed his vision as unrealistic and unjust. Trump was not discouraged by their dismissal. He still thinks that Arab states will come around.
Among Palestinians and their supporters, the plan is regarded as a nefarious plot to ethnically cleanse Gaza. Hamas and the Palestinian Authority, which ruled Gaza until 2007, have both condemned it.
Netanyahu, an opponent of Israel’s 2005 unilateral withdrawal from Gaza, has hailed Trump’s resettlement scheme as a “remarkable idea.”
Israeli Defence Minister Israel Katz has announced that he has instructed the army to prepare a plan to facilitate the “voluntary” departure of Palestinians from Gaza. “The residents of Gaza should be allowed to enjoy the freedom of exit and migration, as is customary everywhere in the world.”
And in a dig at Ireland, Spain and Norway, which have all accused Israel of genocide in Gaza, Katz sarcastically said that Palestinian migrants should be permitted to settle in these countries.
Under Katz’s direction, Finance Minister Bezalel Smotrich is establishing a “migration administration” office charged with overseeing the emigration of Palestinians from Gaza. Smotrich, who recently conducted meetings in Washington with U.S. officials, said on March 9 that Israel is working with the Trump administration to find countries that will take in Gazans
Egypt’s $53 billion counter-proposal, which was presented at an Arab League summit in Cairo about two weeks ago, is totally at odds with Israel’s and Trump’s vision.
Under the Egyptian plan, not a single Palestinian would be expelled from Gaza.
During the first phase, which would last six months and cost $3 billion, rubble and stray ordnance would be removed, 1.2 million Palestinians would be moved into temporary prefabricated housing units, and 60,000 partly destroyed buildings would be renovated.
In phase two, costing $20 billion and extending into 2027, permanent housing and utilities would be built.
During the final phase, which would cost $30 billion and end in 2030, industrial zones, a seaport, a fishing port and an airport would be constructed.
In addition, a committee of technocrats unaffiliated with Hamas would be placed in charge of ruling Gaza for an initial six month period before governance is handed over to the Palestinian Authority (PA). While the plan does not explicitly mention Palestinian statehood, it calls for “a credible political process that ensures the legitimate rights of Palestinians.”
Egypt’s plan also recommends the deployment of international peacekeeping troops in Gaza, who would be backed up by PA police officers upholding law and order. Overall security would be managed by “legitimate Palestinian institutions” rather than by Hamas, which has rejected demilitarization.
The Trump administration has responded ambivalently to the Egyptian proposal.
Trump’s special Middle East envoy, Steve Witkoff, gave it an encouraging reception, saying it was a “good faith first step” with “a lot of compelling features.” White House National Security Council spokesman Brian Hughes, however, characterized it as “inadequate” and not in keeping with Trump’s parameters.
An Israeli Foreign Ministry spokesman, Oren Marmorstein, was just as dismissive, saying it “fails to address the realities of the situation” and was outdated. He reiterated Israel’s support for Trump’s plan to resettle Gaza’s population as “an opportunity for Gazans to have free choice based on their free will.”
The foreign ministers of France, Germany, Italy and Britain have endorsed Egypt’s Arab-backed plan.
In a joint statement on March 8, they said, “The plan shows a realistic path to the reconstruction of Gaza and promises — if implemented — swift and sustainable improvement of the catastrophic living conditions for the Palestinians living in Gaza. We are clear that Hamas must neither govern Gaza nor be a threat to Israel any more. We commend the serious efforts of all involved stakeholders and appreciate the important signal the Arab states have sent by jointly developing this recovery and reconstruction plan.”
The Europeans, having agreed with Egypt’s plan, have therefore rejected Trump’s proposal. This does not mean that an impasse has been created. The Egyptian plan could be a starting point for negotiations to sort out differences with the United States and Israel over Gaza’s future.
In the meantime, Gaza lies in ruins, Hamas still stands, and the lives of the remaining hostages are on tenterhooks.
