A preliminary consensus has emerged that Iran’s nuclear program was considerably degraded during the recent 12-day Israel-Iran war.
Israeli and U.S. aircraft bombed three major Iranian uranium enrichment facilities, Fordow, Natanz and Isfahan, and they were badly damaged, if not destroyed.
Since a definitive bomb damage assessment has yet to be released, we cannot be entirely certain that this is entirely true. More information may come to light should Iran allow inspectors from the International Atomic Energy Agency to visit the sites.
In the wake of the U.S. strikes, President Donald Trump claimed that the most fortified facility, Fordow, had been completely “obliterated” by bunker busting GBU-57 Massive Ordnance Penetrator bombs.
Shortly after his secretary of defence, Pete Hegseth, repeated this claim, the U.S. Defence Intelligence Agency issued a classified report estimating that the three sites had suffered moderate to severe damage, and that Iran’s nuclear program had been set back by less than six months.
The report was leaked to the media, embarrassing and infuriating Trump, who heatedly held fast to his claim. Hegseth called a news conference and angrily accused the media of trying to undermine his boss.
U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio jumped in to say that the destruction of the “conversion facility” in Isfahan had damaged Iran’s ability to fabricate an atomic weapon.
The director of the Central Intelligence Agency, John Ratcliffe, a Trump appointee, said that all the sites had been “severely damaged” and dismissed the Defence Intelligence Agency report as outdated and irrelevant.
Rafael Grossi, the director general of the International Atomic Energy Agency, added another layer to the debate when he announced that the Fordow uranium enrichment plant was “no longer operational.” But he added that not all of Iran’s nuclear sites had been “wiped out,” and that Iran likely will be able to begin producing enriched uranium “in a matter of months.”
Hailing Israel’s “historic victory” over Iran, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said, “We sent Iran’s nuclear program down the drain.”
The Israel Atomic Energy Commission concurred, having concluded that Fordow and Natanz have been rendered “inoperable.”
The commander of Israel’s armed forces, General Eyal Zamir, said that Iran is no longer a “nuclear threshold” state. Iran may still possess fragments of a nuclear program, but it has been set back by years, he noted.
In a defiant and perhaps predictable message, Iranian supreme leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei downplayed the severity of the Israeli and U.S attacks. He also claimed that the reason Trump joined the war on Israel’s side was to save Israel from being “completely destroyed.”
His officials hewed far more closely to the truth.
The spokesman of Iran’s Foreign Ministry, Esmail Baghaei, admitted that its nuclear facilities had been “badly damaged,” though he declined to delve into the details.
Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi said, “I have to say that the losses have not been small. Our facilities have been seriously damaged.”
Richard Nephew, a former American diplomat who specialized in Iranian affairs during the Biden administration, totally agrees with Araghchi’s blunt assessment.
In a piece in Foreign Affairs, he wrote, “This much is clear: Iran’s nuclear program was badly mauled. The Isfahan nuclear research center, the Natanz fuel enrichment plant and its associated buildings, and the Fordow fuel enrichment plant — Iran’s three main nuclear sites — were all seriously damaged. Entire parts of Isfahan and Natanz were outright destroyed. Iran’s Arak reactor was destroyed and, with it, any near-term chance that Iran could produce weapons-grade plutonium.
“The Israelis also attacked several other research and development sites throughout Iran, including parts of the Atomic Energy Organization of Iran and of the Iranian military’s Organization of Defensive Innovation, which analysts suspect is responsible for nuclear weapons–related research and development.
“The deaths of at least a dozen Iranian scientists in the Israeli strikes have cost Iran decades of practical knowledge useful to building nuclear weapons. Israeli attacks targeting Iran’s missile program may hinder the country’s ability to develop a nuclear weapon that could fit on a warhead.”
Despite the losses it incurred, Iran may have hoodwinked the world. What happened to its stockpile of 400 kilograms of highly enriched uranium?
Representative Jim Himes, a Democrat on the House Intelligence Committee, thinks this is a critical issue. As he put it, “Obliterating the sites means nothing if the Iranians moved enough 60 percent uranium, centrifuges and other weaponization tools to build a bomb at some possibly unknown location. The (Iranian) regime may be vile, but they are not stupid, and this stuff can be relatively easily relocated.”
Trump contends that the cache was buried beneath the ruins of Fordow rather than moved to a secure location.
Several days ago, he announced that the United States and Iran would soon meet to discuss a potential nuclear deal. Araghchi dismissed Trump’s announcement and suggested that Iran might stop cooperating with the International Atomic Energy Agency.
Around this time, Iran’s Guardian Council, which has veto power over legislation, green lighted a bill passed in parliament banning cooperation with the International Atomic Energy Agency.
Judging by reports in the Israeli media, the U.S. intends to present Iran with three basic demands should negotiations begin: a total ban on uranium enrichment in Iran, the removal of all of Iran’s highly enriched uranium stockpile, and limitations on future missile production.
On June 26, the U.S. envoy to the Middle East, Steve Witkoff, said that uranium enrichment and Iranian weaponization are red lines for the United States. These are the same demands that the Trump administration made during indirect and direct talks with Iran between April and June.
Iran repeatedly rejected them as non-negotiable.
Trump may offer Iran tantalizing incentives to bring it back to the negotiating table. They reportedly include sanctions relief, the release of $6 billion in frozen Iranian funds, monetary support to replace the Fordow facility with a non-enrichment program, and a $20 billion to $30 billion investment plan to establish a civilian nuclear energy program.
Israel, in the meantime, has adopted a hard line toward Iran.
Its defence minister, Israel Katz, said he intends to pursue a “policy of enforcement” to prevent Iran from advancing nuclear projects, developing “threatening” long-range missiles, or rebuilding its air force.
In plain language, Israel is contemplating more air strikes on Iran, despite the June 24 ceasefire brokered by Trump. Araghchi warned that a breach of the truce would necessitate an Iranian response.
Trump, too, is open to attacking Iran again, having said that he would “absolutely” consider bombing Iran’s nuclear facilities if Iran enriches uranium to an unacceptable level.
A resumption of fighting is well within the realm of the possible, notwithstanding Trump’s desire to calm the waters in the Middle East.