Hezbollah, having been degraded by Israel during the low-intensity war of attrition in 2023 and 2024 and the all-out two-month war in 2024, is reeling from its defeat as it attempts to regroup and recover.
But the path forward will be exceedingly difficult for Hezbollah, an Iranian proxy which, until last year’s conflict, was Israel’s most formidable enemy apart from Iran.
Eight months after the U.S and French-brokered ceasefire that ended the war, Hezbollah is probably at its lowest ebb since its creation by Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps in the early 1980s.
Israel, in what was surely its most successful military campaign against Hezbollah, managed to eliminate the bulk of its political and military leadership. Among those killed was its wily and charismatic leader, Hassan Nasrallah, who built Hezbollah into a powerful militia, but who foolishly underestimated Israel when he compared it to a spider web that could easily be torn to bits.
His successor, Naim Qassem, an unimpressive figure lacking his qualities, has failed to fill the yawning void left by Nasrallah’s assassination in Beirut last September.
While Hezbollah is desperately trying to rebuild its capabilities, organizational structure and internal standing in Lebanon, it labors under distinct disadvantages.
According to Israeli data, more than 70 percent of its missiles and rockets have been destroyed, along with an identical proportion of its infrastructure and tunnel network in southern Lebanon.
One-third of its elite Radwan Force, which was poised to invade northern Israel shortly after Hamas’ invasion of southern Israel on October 7, has been decimated. Upwards of 4,500 of its foot soldiers have been killed and another 9,000 have been wounded, deeply damaging its regular military force. In addition, many of its commanders have been taken out.
Apart from being deprived of its bases in southern Lebanon, Hezbollah has lost economic resources in the form of damage to its financial system, says The Institute for National Security Studies at Tel Aviv University.
As a result of its weakened state, Hezbollah has not been able to effectively lead postwar reconstruction efforts in southern Lebanon, making it impossible for some 100,000 displaced civilians to return to their homes, according to the United Nations.
In short, Hezbollah is a pale imitation of the organization it was before 2024. Nevertheless, it continues to enjoy support from the majority of Lebanon’s Shi’a Muslims.
On top of all its woes, Hezbollah has suffered tremendous strategic setbacks.
One of its chief allies, Syrian President Bashar al-Assad, was deposed last December and replaced by an Islamist regime that has distanced itself from Iran and is keeping Hezbollah in check. The sudden collapse of Assad’s regime has led to the loss of strategic depth and the freedom to utilize arms smuggling routes running through Syria.
Hezbollah’s principal arms supplier, Iran, is no longer in a position to extend meaningful assistance. Having been humiliated by Israel during last month’s 12-day war, Iran appears to have hunkered down and is now focused on rebuilding its depleted armed forces and command structure.
Last month, Israel killed Saeed Izadi, the commander of Iran’s Quds Force’s Palestine Corps. He was a key link between Iran and Hezbollah. Israel has also targeted other Iranian officials who were involved in strengthening Iran’s proxies in its Axis of Resistance.
During the recent war, Hezbollah organized pro-Iranian rallies and accused Israel and the United States of criminal aggression and “igniting the entire region.” But due to its weakness and warnings from the Lebanese government, Hezbollah stayed out of the fighting. One of Hezbollah’s senior officials, Mahmoud Qamati, a member of its political council, justified its inaction by claiming that Iran was sufficiently strong and did not require help.
Lebanon’s new leadership, headed by President Joseph Aoun and Prime Minister Nawaf Salam, have not made things easier for Hezbollah.
Aoun has said he will try “to keep Lebanon away from conflicts that do not concern us,” follow through with his intention to disarm Hezbollah and other armed groups in the country, and place all weapons under state control.
Aoun claims that this objective can be achieved through dialogue so as to prevent another civil war, the last one of which petered out in 1990 after 15 years. He said that Hezbollah operatives can be integrated into the national army after vetting and training.
Israel maintains that Hezbollah must be disarmed if there is to be peace along its border with Lebanon, but Qassem, Hezbollah’s secretary-general, insists it will not lay down its arms in response to Israeli threats.
The Lebanese army, in the meantime, has significantly obstructed Hezbollah’s attempts to preserve its remaining weaponry and redeploy its operatives in southern Lebanon, a process that occurred in the wake of the 2006 Israel-Hezbollah war.
So far, the Lebanese government has deployed 4,500 soldiers to southern Lebanon below the Litani River. A further 6,000 are expected to be sent there. The Lebanese Army has taken over 190 of Hezbollah’s 265 outposts and demolished over 90 percent of Hezbollah’s infrastructure in the south.
The army has stepped up border surveillance, but continues to avoid direct confrontations with Hezbollah. In addition, the army has tracked down Hamas operatives who were responsible for launching rockets at Israel this past March and claims to have thwarted another rocket launch in April from near the city of Tyre.
Since the ceasefire, Lebanese security forces have reportedly sought to prevent Hezbollah from smuggling arms and cash by blocking transit routes to and from Syria and monitoring airports and seaports.
Three months ago, 30 airport workers linked to Hezbollah were dismissed, and Lebanon halted flights from Iran over concerns of money smuggling to Hezbollah. Lebanese forces have removed Hezbollah flags and street signs in Beirut, signifying that its political influence is waning.
Aoun also seeks the full disarmament of Lebanon’s 16 Palestinian refugee camps. Recently, following Aoun’s talks with Palestinian Authority President Mahmoud Abbas, a joint statement was issued declaring an end to “weapons outside the control of the Lebanese state” and pledging that local Palestinian camps would no longer be “safe havens for extremist groups.”
It is widely assumed that Lebanon will exert pressure on Hezbollah to comply with United Nations Resolution 1701 to disarm. Lebanese politicians who previously refrained from criticizing Hezbollah, but who currently call for its disarmament include Druze leader Walid Jumblatt and Christian leader Gebran Bassil.
During his most recent visit to Beirut in June, U.S. envoy Thomas Barrack demanded that the Lebanese leadership set a timetable for the disarmament process to be completed by the end of 2025.
Morgan Ortagus, the deputy U.S. special envoy to the Middle East, visited Beirut in the spring and let is be known that American aid to Lebanon is contingent on economic reforms and the disarmament of Hezbollah and other militias.
Since the ceasefire last November, the Israeli government has made it clear that it will never allow Hezbollah to use southern Lebanon again as a platform from which to attack Israel. In the intervening months, Israel has killed about 200 Hezbollah operatives and bombed its bases across Lebanon.
On July 15, Israeli jets carried out a wave of air strikes deep inside the northern Bekaa Valley, killing five members of the Radwan Force. Israeli Defense Minister Israel Katz described the attacks as “a clear message” to both Hezbollah and the Lebanese government that Israel will react with “maximum force” to any attempt by Hezbollah to resurrect its military capabilities.
Early in July, in its first ground incursion into Lebanon in months, the Israeli army destroyed Hezbollah infrastructure near the border.
Last month, the Israeli Air Force struck underground drone production facilities in Beirut operated by Hezbollah.
In March and April, Israel launched air strikes in Beirut’s Dahiya quarter, a Hezbollah stronghold.
These bombings have eroded Hezbollah’s remaining capabilities, severely disrupting its efforts to regroup and maintain a presence in southern Lebanon.
Under the terms of the ceasefire and a side letter from the Trump administration, Israel was granted the right to respond to immediate threats posed by Hezbollah and to violations that the Lebanese army did not address.
Under the ceasefire, Israel was supposed to withdraw its forces from southern Lebanon last November, but due to still unsettled conditions, the Israeli army has held on to five positions near the border. The Lebanese government demands Israel’s withdrawal, but this is unlikely to happen until Hezbollah is fully disarmed, a process that may take years or may never even happen.