Two Middle East powers upgraded their bilateral relations this week as Iran’s president visited Turkey.
The president of Turkey, Abdullah Gul, declared that Hassan Rouhani’s visit marked a “new era” in Turkey’s sometimes fraught relationship with Iran.
Rouhani, a self-styled reformer who has made it his mission to improve Iran’s foreign relations, was the first Iranian head of state in 18 years to set foot on Turkish soil. Accompanied by a cavalcade of cabinet ministers, advisors and businessmen, he signed agreements in trade, energy, tourism, culture and transportation with his Turkish counterpart.
And in an oblique reference to the Islamic State in Iraq and Syria, an Al Qaeda offshoot, Turkey and Iran agreed to fight terrorism and extremism.
Considering the fact that Turkey and Iran have been rivals rather than partners since the 1979 Iranian revolution, Rouhani’s trip set a new tone in their bilateral relations, which Turkish newspaper columnist Ilnur Cevik described as “a love-hate relationship.”
Rouhani’s visit came on the heels of Turkish Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan`s recent visit to Iran, where he signed a landmark trade accord aimed at doubling the current $15 billion volume of trade by 2015.
Turkey, a Sunni-majority democracy ruled by a moderate Islamic party, and Iran, a Shiite theocracy controlled by a cabal of mullahs, have much to gain from the exchange of visits.
Iran is a key market for Turkish exports. In recent years, Turkey’s economy, the world’s 16th largest, has grown by leaps and bounds. For Turkey, Iran is also a crucial source of natural gas and oil. Recently, Turkish businessmen agreed to invest $12 billion in Iranian gas fields.
Beyond dollars and cents, Turkey, the successor state of the Ottoman Empire, seeks to expand its already considerable influence in the Middle East, while Iran wants to break out of its relative isolation.
Although Rouhani’s visit was seen as a breakthrough by observers, Turkey and Iran are still at odds over several pivotal issues. As a spokesman at Iran’s embassy in Ankara put it last week, “We have agreements as well as disagreements.”
Turkey fears that Iran’s acquisition of a nuclear arsenal will upset the balance of power in the Middle East, to its detriment, and touch off a dangerous regional nuclear arms race. But as Gul noted, Turkey defends Iran’s right to peaceful nuclear technology. Turkey supports a diplomatic solution to the current nuclear impasse between Iran and the Western powers. Four years ago, Turkey and Brazil tried to defuse the conflict, but their proposal on outsourcing uranium enrichment was rejected by the United States and its allies.
In 2011, Turkey — the only Muslim member of the NATO alliance — incurred Iran’s wrath by agreeing to station a missile defence system on its territory close to the Iranian border. Iran claimed that the missiles are intended to protect Israel, its arch adversary, from an Iranian counter-attack should Israel bomb its nuclear sites. Iran asked Turkey to remove the missiles, but Turkey refused, saying they are designed to deter and check aggression.
While Turkey supports the current armed uprising against the Baathist regime in Syria, headed by President Bashar Assad, Iran backs him to the hilt. Turkey and Syria enjoyed cordial and mutually beneficial relations until three years ago. But after the Syrian revolt broke out, Assad and Erdogan parted ways. Erdogan had urged Assad to bring in a program of reforms, but Assad refused. Since then, Erdogan has permitted Syrian opposition figures to operate in Turkey and let Syrian fighters cross into Syria from Turkish enclaves. Out of necessity, Turkey has built camps for hundreds of thousands of Syrian refugees.
Iraq is yet another source of friction, with Turkey fearing that Iran will become the predominant foreign power there now that U.S. forces have withdrawn. Iraq — a mainly Shiite nation — and Iran have consolidated commercial and political relations in the past few years, much to Turkey’s chagrin and apprehension.
Turkey greeted the 2011 Arab Spring rebellions as an expression of grassroots yearning for democracy and transparency, but Iran perceived them as an Islamic awakening. Three years on, Turkey and Iran remain far apart on this matter.
The perennial Kurdish issue also divides them. Turkey and Iran both face a territorial threat from Kurdish separatism, but instead of cooperating they appear to be conspiring against each other. Turkey, for example, suspects that Iran has been active on behalf of the Kurdistan Workers’ Party.
Iran calls for Israel’s destruction, but Turkey has had excellent relations with the Jewish state. The 2010 Mavi Marmara incident, during which nine Turkish nationals were killed by Israel commandos, almost ruptured their relations. But according to reports, Turkey and Israel are on the cusp of putting that incident behind them and normalizing bilateral ties. Iran will not be pleased if the status quo ante is restored.