Donald Trump is keeping the world guessing concerning his attitude toward direct U.S. military participation in Israel’s current war with Iran.
Benjamin Netanyahu, the Israeli prime minister, hopes the American president will join Israel in destroying Iran’s nuclear facilities, particularly the heavily fortified site in Fordow.
But it looks like Netanyahu will be waiting, perhaps in vain.
On June 19, Trump’s press secretary, Karoline Leavitt, informed reporters that he will need up to two weeks to decide whether or not to directly join the war against Iran alongside Israel.
She read aloud his statement: “Based on the fact that there is a substantial chance of negotiations that may or may not take place with Iran in the near future, I will make my decision on whether or not to go within the next two weeks.”
Leavitt disclosed that Trump’s Middle East envoy, Steve Witkoff, and Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi have spoken by phone several times to find a diplomatic solution to the current crisis in the Middle East.
The news agency Reuters reported that Araghchi said that Iran will not return to negotiations over its nuclear program unless Israel stops its military campaign, which began on June 13 and has led to deadly Iranian missile attacks that have claimed the lives of 24 Israelis and foreigners and damaged property on a fairly massive scale. In one of its latest barrages, Iran damaged the Soroka Medical Center in Beersheba.
Reuters disclosed that Witkoff and Araghchi discussed a U.S. proposal conveyed to Iran last month under which Iranian uranium would be enriched by a regional consortium outside Iran. The Iranian regime has so far rejected this offer. Claiming its nuclear program is peaceful in nature, Iran insists on enriching uranium on its home ground.
Araghchi, on June 20, was due to meet the foreign ministers of Britain, France and Germany in Geneva.
Trump’s abrupt message doubtless disappointed Netanyahu, who may have been under the impression that the United States, Israel’s closest ally, was on the cusp of intervening in the war. In the meantime, however, Israel is free to pummel Iran.
Before the latest development, Trump, a staunch opponent of a nuclear-armed Iran, conveyed mixed messages. While usually voicing a preference for diplomacy over war, he sometimes suggested he was leaning toward military involvement.
Two months ago, in one of his boldest comments, he insisted he would not be dragged into a war by Israel. “I think we can make a deal without (an) attack,” he told Time magazine. “I hope we can.”
Amid reports that Israel was deeply concerned that the U.S. might sign a “bad deal” with Iran, Trump twice said he had dissuaded Netanyahu from attacking Iran.
Once the war broke out, following Israel’s preemptive strikes in Iran, Trump’s contradictory statements came across as confusing.
On the first day of hostilities, after Secretary of State Marco Rubio said that the U.S. was not involved and that “our top priority is protecting American forces in the region,” he described Israel’s air raids as “excellent” and “very successful.” But in the same breath, he called for diplomacy to end the fighting. “Iran must make a deal before there is nothing left,” he warned in an allusion to Israel’s punishing strikes.
After a telephone conversation with Russian President Vladimir Putin, Trump urged Israel and Iran to resolve their differences by political means.
But after returning from a G-7 summit in Canada, he said he sought an outcome “better than a ceasefire,” admitted that he was no longer in the mood to continue talks with Iran, warned that his patience was “growing thin,” and said that Israel and Iran should “fight it out.”
Until that point, the U.S. and Iran had conducted five rounds of negotiations in Oman. Iran cancelled the sixth round after Israel’s attack.
On June 17, in a puzzling shift, he called for Iran’s “unconditional surrender” after threatening to kill Iran’s supreme leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, at an unspecified time. He then boasted that “we have complete and total control of the skies over Iran.” It is unclear what he meant by “we,” since U.S. aircraft have not bombed Iran.
At the same time, the Pentagon continued sending military assets, including an aircraft carrier group and refuelling planes, to the Middle East.
In one of his most recent remarks, Trump was the epitome of vagueness. “I may do it, I may not do it,” he said amid speculation the U.S. could be on the verge of joining the Israeli offensive. “I mean, nobody knows what I’m going to do.”
In the face of Trump’s hesitancy, Netanyahu said that Israel can achieve its objectives without the assistance of the U.S. Israeli Foreign Minister Gideon Sa’ar said that Israel will press on “until we achieve our goals.”
Trump is waffling due to at least three interlocking reasons.
He promised, in his inauguration speech, to end conflicts around the globe and not to get embroiled in “forever” wars. He wants to be remembered as a peacekeeper and yearns to win the Noble Prize for Peace.
The Israel-Iran war has torn his Republican Party asunder. Isolationists, fearing that the U.S. could be sucked into yet another costly war in the Middle East, believe that American involvement would run counter to Trump’s ‘America First’ foreign policy agenda. Iran hawks, who back Israel, think that Iran’s nuclear program is dangerous and that Iran is a destabilizing force that should be cut down to size.
Trump funds himself in the middle of this fissure.
A majority of Trump’s supporters oppose a U.S. military role in Israel’s confrontation with Iran. A survey conducted by Economist/YouGov found that 53 percent of voters who backed Trump in the 2024 presidential election do not want the U.S. to join in Israel’s strikes. A Chicago Council on Global Affairs-Ipsos survey in April found that eight in 10 Americans favor diplomatic steps, or the tightening of economic sanctions, to limit Iran’s enrichment capacity. A survey by the Economist magazine revealed that only 19 percent of his supporters are in favor of U.S. military involvement, while 63 percent want the Trump administration to engage in negotiations with Iran over its nuclear program.
Representative Thomas Massie, a Republican from Kentucky, and his Democrat colleague from California, Ro Khanna, have introduced a resolution in the House of Representatives that would require congressional approval before U.S. troops can be sent to the war zone. “This is not our war,” said Massie. “But if it were, Congress must decide such matters according to our constitution.”
Tim Kaine, a Democrat from Virginia, has introduced a similar resolution in the Senate.
Tim Burchett, a Republican from Tennessee, supports the Massie/Khanna resolution. “We don’t need another endless war in the Middle East. Old men make decisions and young men die, and that’s the history of war,” he said. “We need to take a deep breath and slow down this thing and let the Israelis do their thing.”
Representative Marjorie Taylor Greene of Georgia wrote on X, “Anyone slobbering for the U.S. to become fully involved in the Israel/Iran war is not America First/MAGA (Make America Great Again).”
She went on to say, “I don’t want to see Israel bombed or Iran bombed or Gaza bombed. And we do NOT want to be involved or required to pay for ANY OF IT!!!”
“Foreign wars/intervention/regime change put America last, kill innocent people, are making us broke, and will ultimately lead to our destruction,” she wrote. “That’s not kooky. That’s what millions of Americans voted for. It’s what we believe is America First.”
She denies that Iran is close to attaining a nuclear weapon and believes that its pursuit of weapons of mass destruction is not significant because several countries already possess “some sort of nuclear capabilities.”
Greene’s friend, the broadcaster Tucker Carlson, has come out against a U.S. military role in the war and has accused Trump of being “complicit” in Israel’s “act of war.”
Steve Bannon, Trump’s former advisor, said, “The bottom line is that we cannot be dragged into a war.” In a reference to Israel, he said, “Hey, you guys did it. You’re putting you’re country first. That’s fine, but we’ve got to put our defence first.”
Tulsi Gabbard, the director of National Intelligence and a darling of the anti-war camp in the Republican Party, told the House Intelligence Committee this past March that the U.S. intelligence community “continues to assess that Iran is not building a nuclear weapon and supreme leader Khomeini has not authorized the nuclear weapons program that he suspended in 2003.”
But she warned that Iran is enriching uranium “at its highest levels and is unprecedented for a state without nuclear weapons.”
Many of the highest-ranking Republicans in the Senate have expressed support for Israel’s preemptive strikes.
Tom Cotton of Arkansas, the chairman of the Senate Intelligence Committee said, “Proud to stand with Israel.” He added, We back Israel to the hilt, all the way.” Lindsey Graham of South Carolina, a close ally of Trump, said, “The overwhelming majority of Republicans back Israel’s use of military force to neuter the Iranian nuclear threat.”
The Speaker of the House of Representatives, Mike Johnson, said, “Israel IS right, and has a right, to defend itself!”
Jim Risch of Indiana, the chairman of the Senate Foreign Relations Committee, said, “We stand with Israel and pray for the safety of its people …”
The Senate majority leader, John Thune of South Dakota, pointed out that Iran has been trying for years to wipe out Israel, that Iran has violated its non-proliferation obligations, and that Israel had no alternative but to “take decisive action to defend the Israeli people.”
The war that Israel is waging against its most formidable enemy has triggered a debate of historic proportions in the United States. While most Americans support Israel, they do not necessarily endorse America’s military involvement in this war.
Trump understands these nuances and is likely to act accordingly, despite his reputation as one of America’s most pro-Israel presidents.