The United States has pulled out all the stops in a concerted effort to preserve the shaky ceasefire in the Gaza Strip. Brokered earlier this month by President Donald Trump in coordination with Israel, Arab states and Turkey, it kicked off the first phase of Trump’s 20-point peace plan to end the two-year war between Israel and Hamas.
To ensure that it is equally honored by both sides, Trump dispatched several envoys to Israel in an extraordinary full court press to prop up the truce, which was ratified at a conference in the Egyptian Red Sea resort of Sharm el-Sheikh in the wake of Trump’s whirlwind visit to Israel.
Steve Witkoff, Trump’s old friend and special envoy to the Middle East, and Jared Kushner, his son-in-law and former chief advisor, were sent to verify progress on the ceasefire.
Vice President J.D. Vance arrived on October 21 for a two-day visit. He was followed by Secretary of State Marco Rubio, who landed in Israel on October 22.
These heavyweights converged on Israel amid apparent concerns in Washington that Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu might break or tamper with the first part of the agreement, which is supposed to lead to the next crucial phase.
It calls for Hamas’ disarmament, the demilitarization of Gaza, the creation of a temporary body of technocrats to govern it, and the establishment of an international stabilization force to patrol it.
Trump’s plan also envisages the reconstruction of Gaza, 80 percent of whose buildings were damaged or destroyed during the war, which claimed the lives of more than 460 Israeli soldiers and 68,000 Palestinians, including some 22,000 Hamas and Islamic Jihad combatants.
It’s an exceedingly tall order, but the Trump administration expects the plan to be fulfilled. Trump himself hopes that his efforts will yield a Nobel Peace Prize and a normalization pact between Israel and Saudi Arabia.
Vance, voicing optimism that the ceasefire will endure, said that both sides are respecting it. “There are little exceptions that break out here and there,” he allowed. “That would be expected when these parties have been at war for two years. But so far, the ceasefire is actually holding, the peace is actually holding and now we’re trying to figure out how to make it stick over the long term.”
The United States is watching developments from the Civil Military Coordination Center in the southern Israeli town of Kiryat Gat, a body that was created expressly to monitor the ceasefire.
Last week, the reliable Axios news site quoted a U.S. official as saying that the United States was “now in charge of what’s going on in Gaza when it comes to the implementation of the deal.” He added, “We are going to be calling the shots.”
This brazen comment triggered a debate in Israel whether Israel is a malleable client state of the United States, its chief ally, or a truly independent country that fiercely charts its own destiny.
Netanyahu, in his meeting with Vance on October 22, alluded to this highly sensitive issue.
“We are not an American protectorate,” he said, referring to Israel’s “unmatched alliance and partnership” with the United States. “Israel will have the final say regarding its security.”
Echoing his comments, Vance said, “We don’t want a vassal state, and that’s not what Israel is. We don’t want a client state, and that’s not what Israel is. We want a partnership. We want an ally here.”
Vance’s comments summoned up memories of Prime Minister Menachem Begin’s forceful reaction to the United States’ condemnation of Israel’s unilateral annexation of the Golan Heights in 1981. Outraged by Washington’s blast, Begin declared that Israel was neither an American vassal nor a banana republic.
While Trump has doubtless exerted pressure on Israel to comply with the substance and spirit of the first phase of the 20-point plan, he has warned Hamas’ leadership that he would permit Israeli forces to “eradicate” Hamas if violence in Gaza continues unabated.
Several days ago, the ceasefire seemed on the brink of collapse when Hamas operatives, firing anti-tank missiles, killed two Israeli soldiers in Rafah, which is controlled by Israel under phase one of the peace plan. Accusing Hamas of violating the ceasefire, Israel launched a wave of airstrikes in Gaza and temporarily suspended the flow of humanitarian aid into Gaza.
The violence on October 19 was the most serious incident in Gaza since the ceasefire went into effect on October 10. According to Axios, the Trump administration “knew this was brewing.”
Axios reported that U.S. officials had anticipated such clashes in the early stages of the ceasefire, and that the Trump administration would significantly increase its oversight of the peace plan to guarantee that it would not fall apart.
Prior to the deaths of the two Israeli soldiers, Israel killed about 44 Gazans who crossed the so-called “yellow line,” which demarcates the Israeli and Hamas zones of occupation since Israel’s withdrawal from 47 percent of Gaza.
Shortly after these incidents, Israel and Hamas announced they are still committed to upholding the ceasefire.
According to Channel 12, a major Israeli television channel, Witkoff and Kushner told Netanyahu that Israel can act in self-defence, but should not endanger the truce.
The tenuous truce has been jeopardized as well by Hamas’ failure to return all 28 deceased Israeli hostages. While Hamas has released all 20 living captives, much to the joy of their families, it has failed to hand over the remains of 15 deceased hostages. Hamas claims it needs “special equipment” to retrieve the rest of the corpses from under Gaza’s rubble.
Kushner, in an interview with the 60 Minutes televisions news show, claimed that Hamas is seriously trying to find the bodies and that it is not intentionally dragging out the process of returning them to Israel.
Israel has accused Hamas of lying, claiming that it has access to most of them and could hand them over at any time.
Since Israel’s first withdrawal from Gaza, Hamas has tightened its grip on the coastal enclave, killing members of clans and criminal gangs and Palestinians accused of collaborating with Israel.
Trump has acknowledged that Hamas sought and received approval from his administration to maintain security control in Gaza during an interim period.
But he has warned Hamas that it must give up its weapons, or face retribution. As he put it last week in a typical display of bluster, “If they don’t disarm, we will disarm them. And it will happen quickly and perhaps violently.”
Trump believes that Hamas’ disarmament can take place within a “reasonable time.”
Hamas has said it will relinquish its arms only to a sovereign Palestinian state, which Israel opposes.
While Trump’s plan excludes Hamas from future governance, Hamas seeks to play a role in its reconstruction. Mohammed Nazzal, a member of Hamas’ politburo, said recently that Hamas is ready for a ceasefire of up to five years to rebuild Gaza.
Israel sees no role whatsoever for Hamas and insists on its full disarmament and disappearance.
How the situation will eventually unfold remains to be seen, but it is a foregone conclusion that Hamas will vigorously resist disarmament or irrelevance.
In the meantime, no one should underestimate Hamas’ resiliency, even after two years of relentless pounding by the Israeli armed forces following its invasion of southern Israel on October 7, 2023.
Writing in the Times of Israel, an observer noted, “Hamas has shown time and again that it can suffer immense damage and return stronger than it was before. It did so after Operation Cast Lead in 2008, Operation Protective Edge in 2014, and the repeated smaller operations in Gaza since the Israeli pullout in 2005.
“True, it has never taken anything like the punishment Israel inflicted since its October 7 invasion, but it remains armed, motivated, and the strongest force in Gaza besides the Israel Defence Force.”
Judging by these observations, Trump’s peace plan will doubtless run into turbulence, particularly during phase two, when Hamas is supposed to lay down its arms and relinquish governance.
This will be the true test of the plan. As Vance told reporters on October 22, “We face a very tough task — to disarm Hamas, rebuild Gaza so life is better for its people, and ensure Hamas no longer threatens Israel. It’s not easy, but we are committed to it.”
This means that Israel, beholden to the United States, will not be able to act independently in Gaza for the foreseeable future. It will be a hard pill for Netanyahu to swallow.