A year ago, on December 8, President Bashar al-Assad’s Baathist regime in Syria fell like a house of cards and was immediately replaced by an Islamist government led by Ahmed al-Shara, a former jihadist affiliated with Al Qaeda.
It was a defining moment in Syria, an Arab state misruled by the Assad family for more than 50 years.
The downfall of Assad’s dictatorship, though remarkable, was not unusual. Autocratic regimes tend to be transitory. And so it was with Syria, a former Ottoman province which attained independence from France in 1946 and morphed into one of the most powerful and influential states in the Arab world.
Assad’s father, Hafez, the commander of the air force and the minister of defence prior to the 1971 coup that brought him to the pinnacle of power, turned Syria into a Soviet-style police state controlled by the Baathist Party, the security apparatus, and the armed forces.
A member of the Alawite minority in a Sunni-majority nation, he brooked no dissent and ruthlessly crushed opponents. Under his administration, the Jewish community was subjected to severe restrictions and drastically shrank.
I personally experienced the oppressive atmosphere in Damascus when I visited Syria in 1975 in my capacity as a journalist. After a few days of touring the city and the countryside, an official at the Ministry of Information advised me to leave. I promptly took his advice. Arriving by bus in Jordan, I felt a deep sense of relief. From Amman, I travelled to Israel, which has been in a technical state of war with Syria since its statehood.
Syria attacked Israel in 1948 and again in 1967. During Hafez’s reign, Syria and Israel clashed in wars in 1973 and 1982. Attempts by the United States in the 1990s to broker a peace treaty between Syria and Israel almost reached the point of fruition, but ultimately failed.
With Hafez’s death in 2000, his son, Bashar, a British-trained ophthalmologist who had evinced no interest in politics, succeeded him. At first, he acted like a reformer, but his true colors as a dyed-in-the-wool autocrat prone to corruption soon emerged.
When a grassroots rebellion shook Syria in 2011, he made cosmetic adjustments, none of which mollified protesters. His adoption of far more aggressive tactics led to widespread bloodshed and an extremely destructive civil war that lasted nearly 14 years.
The strife caused the deaths of some 600,000 people and led to the internal displacement of millions of Syrians. It also forced one-third of Syria’s population to flee abroad.
Assad’s allies, Russia, Iran and Hezbollah, helped him stave off defeat, but at a catastrophic price. Syrian cities from Aleppo to Damascus suffered immense damage, the economy took a tremendous hit, and neighboring Arab states distanced themselves from Syria.
During this period, Assad allowed Russia and Iran to establish bases in Syria and let Hezbollah transport Iranian weapons and munitions from Syria to Lebanon.
Responding to these challenges, Israel regularly bombed Iranian military sites inside Syria and Hezbollah arms convoys. In 2015, Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu reached an agreement with President Vladimir Putin to prevent accidental clashes between Israeli and Russian forces in Syrian territory.
These incidents occurred as Assad’s unpopular regime tottered. Hayat Tahrir al-Sham — a rebel organization commanded by Shara and based in northwest Idlib province — launched a lightning offensive that overwhelmed Assad.
Neither Russia, Iran nor Hezbollah rushed to Assad’s assistance. Russia was preoccupied with a war in Ukraine. Iran and Hezbollah, having been battered by Israel in clashes, were unable or unwilling to intervene.
In short order, Hayat Tahrir al-Sham swept southward, capturing the cities of Aleppo, Homs, Hama and Damascus and establishing itself as the new ruler of Syria.
Assad and his family hastily fled to Moscow. Some of cronies joined them there. Still others have gone into hiding in Syria, plotting to overthrow the new order.
One year on, the vast majority of Syrians are overjoyed that Assad has been removed, yet wonder what the future holds in store for them.
On December 8, celebrations erupted across the country as Syrians marked the first anniversary of Assad’s demise. As a BBC correspondent in Damascus wrote, “A year ago, this scene was nearly unimaginable. Yet here Syria stands: A state attempting to rebuild after 14 years of war, institutional collapse, and displacement on a historic scale.”
In a speech to the nation, Sharaa vowed to build a better Syria and said it had broken away from its repressive and violent past.
The Assads had “sowed discord, spread doubt and erected walls” between the authorities and the people, he said. “We declare a complete break from that legacy, an end to that era, and the beginning of a new chapter — the chapter of building the nation.”
Shara described Syria as “a strong country that belongs to its ancient past, looks forward to a promising future and is restoring its natural position in its Arab, regional and international environment.”
The challenges that he and his cabinet ministers face are daunting.
He must unify a country of diverse religions, ethnicities and sects, but sectarian violence already has erupted.
Last March, more than 1,000 Alawites were killed by government soldiers. In July, several hundred Druze in the southern province of Swede were fatally shot by Syrian troops. Since then, the Druze have set up their own de facto government in Sweida.
In addition, there are ongoing tensions between the central government and Kurdish forces in the northeast, where upwards of 2,000 U.S. troops are stationed to keep Islamic State in check.
Today, Syrians enjoy liberties that Assad suppressed, but the new constitution crafted by Shara’s team is problematic because it allocates immense powers to the presidency. Much to the chagrin of his rivals, he has been given the right to appoint one-third of the legislators in parliament.
Syrians worry about the economy, which was devastated by the long-running civil war. Jobs are relatively scarce and around one quarter of Syrians live in extreme poverty.
Syria, however, has been the recipient of generous financial support from Saudi Arabia, Qatar and Turkey. They have cancelled Syria’s debts and have made huge investments in Syria, which may eventually have a significant impact on the lives of ordinary Syrians.
And in another sign of hope, the World Bank predicts that the Syrian economy is likely to grow by at least one percent this year.
In the realm of foreign policy, Shara’s charm offensive has paid dividends. He has tightened relations with Saudi Arabia, the adjoining Gulf states, Turkey, France, Britain and Germany.
And he has forged cordial ties with the United States, which has lifted most of the crippling sanctions it imposed on Syria during the Assad interregnum. Shara has met U.S. President Donald Trump three times since last May, and Trump has spoken highly of him.
Shara has preserved bilateral relations with Russia, which was once Syria’s chief foreign ally. But Russia’s influence in Syria has waned considerably. It remains to be seen whether Shara will permit Russia to maintain its naval and air bases in Syria.
Iran is no longer a major player in Syria. Judging by the statements issued by Shara in the past year, neither Iran nor Hezbollah will be allowed to use Syrian territory as a platform from which to attack Israel and as a transit route from which to ship Iranian weapons to Lebanon.
A few days ago, the commander of U.S. forces in the Middle East, Admiral Brad Cooper, congratulated Syria for having thwarted several Hezbollah weapons shipments
Nonetheless, the Israeli government has taken a rather dim view of the seismic upheaval in Syria.
Within hours and days of Assad’s fall, the Israeli foreign minister likened Shara to a jihadist in a suit, and Israel went on the offensive to weaken Syria at one of its most vulnerable moments.
The Israeli Air Force bombed Syrian military assets. Commandos seized the Syrian side of Mount Hermon and the United Nations demilitarized zone, and set up nine observation posts within about 15 kilometers of the Israeli border.
Israel, burned by Hamas’ attack on October 7, 2023, resorted to these measures to ensure its security.
Trump, in a disagreement with its methods, has warned Israel not to “interfere” in Syria.
Shara has accused Israel of aggression and “expansionist designs.”
On December 6, he claimed that Syria has no malevolent designs on Israel and that Israel is fighting “ghosts.” As he put it, “Since we arrived in Damascus, we sent positive messages regarding regional peace and stability … and that we are not interested in being a country that exports conflict. But in return, Israel has met us with extreme violence.”
Citing “massive violations” of its air space and territory, Shara said, “We’ve been the victim of over 1,000 air strikes and over 400 incursions.”
Shara has demanded an Israeli withdrawal from the Golan Heights, which Israel captured during the Six Day War and has since annexed, and from territories it has seized since last December.
Syria’s ambassador to the United Nations, Ibrahim Olabi, claims that Israel is trying to undermine Syria. He has accused Israel of having violated the 1974 disengagement agreement, which was hammered out by the then U.S. secretary of state, Henry Kissinger.
In the meantime, Israel and Syria have yet to sign a U.S.-sponsored security pact, which would presumably lower tensions. Israel is holding out for a full-blown peace treaty, but Syria prefers to move at a much slower pace.